In the early days of his presidency, U.S. President Donald Trump fulfilled one of his campaign promises: to cancel the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. Trump’s executive order revoked the country’s membership in the agreement. The move raises the question of whether backing out of the deal will have a positive or negative effect on markets. How will the Israel market be impacted, if at all?
Haim Toledano, a capital markets expert, predicts increased market uncertainty in response to the U.S.’s actions. The haste at which the order was signed put pressure on the markets, creating volatility and leading to uncertainty. Toledano expects markets to be exceptionally risky for the foreseeable future.
Trump Brings Economic Doubt with TPP Cancellation
Trump’s move has brought to light many questions, one of which is whether a trade war may be on the horizon. It’s far too early to start making predictions about the outcome or how events will unfold. It is possible that a new agreement may be reached, or there may be further strain on the relationships between the U.S. and parties involved in the agreement. Further strain could very well lead to countermeasures on U.S. trade.
Haim Toledano from T.A.F university says that the best possible outcome would be to reinvigorate the manufacturing industry in the U.S. If this were to happen, America may begin selling its own technology and cars without having to deal with foreign regulations. Financial institutions may finally have the opportunity to capture the global market. The best possible outcome is what experts call Trumpism.
Toledano thinks that worst possible outcome would be a U.S. recession led by inflation. Trade wars would cause import prices to skyrocket. Other countries would be unwilling to play Trump’s game. Companies would seek to take advantage of America’s vulnerability.
The trouble with Trump’s plan is that there is no surefire way to guarantee that manufacturing will return to the U.S. Companies will only manufacture if they have buyers. Without consumers, they cannot keep their operations running.
The Trump administration’s move is an attempt to reverse the trend of globalization, which has been moving forward steadily for decades.
Evaluating the Original TPP’s Goals (with Haim Toledano)
The original TPP was designed to create jobs and wealth for all member countries while adding billions of dollars in income to workers. But people who know Haim Toledano, say the TPP was certainly not without its flaws. Free trade agreements such as this often contribute to income inequality and tend to only benefit workers earning high salaries.
Right now, it’s impossible to predict the outcome of Trump’s move. It is far too early in the process. However, many countries will likely be reluctant to move forward with the agreement simply because the U.S. was a major player in the TPP.
Israel’s market may inadvertently be impacted because participating countries, many of which engage in trade with Israel, will be impacted. Trade may be reduced, as these countries no longer benefit from the growth opportunities offered by the TPP. Of course, there is no guarantee that this will be the outcome. Responses to the U.S.’s move will paint a more accurate picture of what’s to come.